🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
5%
No
95%
No (95%)Yes (5%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$6k
Liquidity
$7k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 5%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
68%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
64%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
62%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
57%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
54%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
50%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
43%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
41%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
34%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
28%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
26%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
18%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
18%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
15%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$6k
Liquidity$7k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen