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Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
1%
No
99%
No (99%)Yes (1%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$7k
Liquidity
$21k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 1%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
100%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
98%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
98%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
98%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
97%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
94%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
94%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
93%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
91%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
90%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
90%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
89%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
87%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
82%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 12+ pts
79%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
78%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
74%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 10+ pts
51%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 13+ pts
46%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 11+ pts
37%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
2%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
1%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
1%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
0%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
0%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
0%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
1%
probability of YES
Kalshi
1%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$7k
Liquidity$21k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen