🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
21%
No
79%
No (79%)Yes (21%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$3k
Liquidity
$147k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 21%. Kalshi has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
61%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
52%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
39%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
34%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
18%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
15%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$3k
Liquidity$147k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen