🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
46%
No
54%
No (54%)Yes (46%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$33k
Liquidity
$238k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 46%. Kalshi has moved up 11pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
66%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
58%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
37%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
27%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
23%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
1%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$33k
Liquidity$238k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen