🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
4%
No
96%
No (96%)Yes (4%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$6k
Liquidity
$50k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 4%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
64%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
64%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
59%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
59%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
57%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
49%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
39%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
39%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
31%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
18%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
16%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$6k
Liquidity$50k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen