🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
29%
No
71%
No (71%)Yes (29%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$17k
Liquidity
$213k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 29%. Kalshi has moved down 4pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
62%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
60%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
51%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
38%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
26%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
21%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
1%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$17k
Liquidity$213k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen