🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
41%
No
59%
No (59%)Yes (41%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$39k
Liquidity
$118k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 41%. Kalshi has moved up 10pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
65%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
59%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
51%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
35%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
28%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
21%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
4%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$39k
Liquidity$118k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen