🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
58%
No
42%
No (42%)Yes (58%)
Probability History
Loading...
Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$17k
Liquidity
$150k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 58%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
70%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
65%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
63%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
51%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
46%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
40%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
38%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
32%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
28%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
23%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
16%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
15%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$17k
Liquidity$150k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen