🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
28%
No
72%
No (72%)Yes (28%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$10k
Liquidity
$44k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 28%.
About this market
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
65%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
53%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
43%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
31%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
16%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
3%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$10k
Liquidity$44k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen