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Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
99%
No
1%
No (1%)Yes (99%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$22k
Liquidity
$21k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 99%.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
100%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
100%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
100%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
100%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
99%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
99%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
99%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
99%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
99%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
99%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
99%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
99%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
98%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
97%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
93%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 10+ pts
91%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 11+ pts
81%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 12+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 13+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 16+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 15+ pts
3%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 14+ pts
2%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
1%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
1%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
0%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
0%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
0%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
0%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
0%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
0%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
99%
probability of YES
Kalshi
99%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$22k
Liquidity$21k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen