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Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 2+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
22%
No
78%
No (78%)Yes (22%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$10k
Liquidity
$10k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 22%. Kalshi has moved up 4pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 0.5+ pts
65%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1.5+ pts
63%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1+ pts
57%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2+ pts
55%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2.5+ pts
55%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3+ pts
46%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3.5+ pts
36%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4+ pts
31%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 1+ pts
30%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5+ pts
27%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4.5+ pts
27%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 6+ pts
22%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5.5+ pts
21%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 7+ pts
19%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 3+ pts
13%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 8+ pts
11%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 9+ pts
10%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 5+ pts
7%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 4+ pts
7%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 7+ pts
6%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 12+ pts
6%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 15+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 18+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 21+ pts
4%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 6+ pts
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
22%
probability of YES
Kalshi
22%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen