🗳️ Elections
Texas Governor margin of victory
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
48%
No
52%
No (52%)Yes (48%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$6k
Liquidity
$67k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 48%. Kalshi has moved down 8pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Governor margin of victory
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1+ pts
62%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2+ pts
56%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4+ pts
42%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5+ pts
33%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 6+ pts
28%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 1+ pts
26%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 2+ pts
24%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 7+ pts
21%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 3+ pts
14%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 8+ pts
11%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 4+ pts
10%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 9+ pts
8%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 6+ pts
6%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 15+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 5+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 21+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 18+ pts
4%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 12+ pts
2%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 7+ pts
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$6k
Liquidity$67k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen