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Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
34%
No
66%
No (66%)Yes (34%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$12k
Liquidity
$35k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 34%. Kalshi has moved down 7pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 0.5+ pts
65%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1.5+ pts
57%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1+ pts
56%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2+ pts
49%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2.5+ pts
48%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3+ pts
42%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3.5+ pts
37%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4.5+ pts
34%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 1+ pts
30%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5+ pts
27%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5.5+ pts
22%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 6+ pts
20%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 2+ pts
19%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 7+ pts
18%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 3+ pts
12%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 5+ pts
9%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 8+ pts
9%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 9+ pts
9%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 4+ pts
9%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 12+ pts
6%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 15+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 21+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 18+ pts
4%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 6+ pts
3%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 7+ pts
0%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
34%
probability of YES
Kalshi
34%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$12k
Liquidity$35k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen