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Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
60%
No
40%
No (40%)Yes (60%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$17k
Liquidity
$42k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 60%. Kalshi has moved down 6pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 0.5+ pts
65%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1.5+ pts
60%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2+ pts
54%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2.5+ pts
50%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3+ pts
43%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3.5+ pts
36%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4+ pts
34%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5+ pts
27%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4.5+ pts
26%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 1+ pts
26%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5.5+ pts
22%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 6+ pts
21%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 2+ pts
19%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 7+ pts
18%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 8+ pts
15%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 3+ pts
14%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 9+ pts
10%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 5+ pts
9%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 4+ pts
9%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 12+ pts
7%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 15+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 21+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 18+ pts
4%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 6+ pts
3%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 7+ pts
0%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
60%
probability of YES
Kalshi
60%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$17k
Liquidity$42k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen