🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate: margin of victory
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6-8%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
3%
No
97%
No (97%)Yes (3%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$22k
Liquidity
$26k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 3%. Kalshi has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 6% to 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate: margin of victory
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 2-4%
23%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 0-2%
20%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0-2%
15%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 4-6%
15%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 6-8%
12%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, ≥8%
12%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2-4%
10%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4-6%
5%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, ≥8%
3%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$22k
Liquidity$26k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen