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NATO article 5 before 2027?

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Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

95%

No (95%)Yes (5%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 5%. Polymarket has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.