🗳️ Elections

Will the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

10%

90%

No (90%)Yes (10%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 10%. Kalshi has moved up 3pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If a federal ban on public access to open-source AI models is enacted in the United States through legislation, an executive order, a regulation or another binding federal measure before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

10%

probability of YES

Kalshi

10%Check

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Resolution

Jan 1, 2027

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume—

Liquidity$3k

CategoryElections

StatusOpen