🗳️ Elections

Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

54%

46%

No (46%)Yes (54%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 54%. Kalshi has moved down 6pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the California High-Speed Rail Authority announces that permanent mainline track installation on the Central Valley high-speed rail guideway has physically begun (rail laid on the running alignment, not materials staging, railhead or yard trackwork, or a declared "track-laying phase") before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Avg probability

54%