Vatican III in 2026?

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

10%

90%

No (90%)Yes (10%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 10%. Polymarket has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Pope convokes any ecumenical council between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only ecumenical councils will qualify. Plenary or provincial councils will not be considered. This market will resolve according to announcements from the Pope, Vatican officials, or a consensus of credible reporting. Any official announcement will qualify, regardless of if or when the council actually occurs.